Is a hurricane headed to Texas? Map shows active systems in the Atlantic for next 7 days

Desmond Milligan · August 19

As Hurricane Erin weakens to a Category 2 and turns north along the East Coast, forecasters are also watching two systems in the open Atlantic that could grow into stronger storms.

The National Hurricane Center said Erin is expected to “substantially grow in size” as it tracks across the western Atlantic this week, though it will stay clear of Texas. The two disturbances, however, could develop in ways that eventually threaten the Lone Star State.

NHC map shows active systems in Atlantic. Will either hit Texas?

In addition to Hurricane Erin, the NHC is tracking two other disturbances in the Atlantic that could bring tropical weather.

One tropical wave over the central Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, with a potential tropical depression forming by the end of the week or over the weekend. Forecasters expect the system to move west to west-northwest, reaching the vicinity of the Leeward Islands by Friday, August 22. The NHC has given it a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.

A second tropical wave, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, is generating a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. The environment is favorable for further development as the system moves westward. However, by the end of the week, it could encounter less favorable conditions, limiting its potential for further strengthening. The NHC has given this system a 30% chance of development over the next seven days.

At this stage, it’s too soon to determine if either system will develop — and much too early to confirm whether either will directly impact Texas, take a different path or dissipate without posing a threat to land at all.

Tropical conditions 8 a.m. Aug. 19, 2025.

Where is Hurricane Erin? See path

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Projected path for Hurricane Erin 8 a.m. Aug. 18, 2025.

Here's the latest Aug. 19 update on Hurricane Erin.

Location: 720 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph
Movement: northwest at 7 mph
Pressure: 958 mb

Hurricane Erin spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compare to last year in Texas?

For Texas, the season has been relatively quiet so far — a sharp contrast to mid-August last year, when the state was already six weeks past the final storm to impact the state, which saw the two earliest storms of the 2024 hurricane season.

In late June 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto threatened the Texas, and by early July, the Lone Star State was tracking one one of the hardest-hit hurricanes of the season — Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before making its third landfall near Matagorda. After that, the remainder of the season was relatively mild for Texas, with no other storm threatening the state.

No storms have directly affected Texas this season, but forecasters warn the season is ramping up as it nears its peak months in August and September.

Last week, on Friday, Aug. 15, Invest 98L — which the National Hurricane Center believed could strengthen into a tropical depression — reached South Texas but brought little impact other than a few inches of rainfall.