Cat 3 Hurricane Erin expected to grow 'substantially.' Projected path, Florida impacts

Desmond Milligan · August 19

Hurricane Erin is expected to bring large waves, rough surf and life-threatening rip currents from Florida to Canada as it moves northwest off the U.S. east coast, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

As of early Tuesday, watches and warnings associated with Erin have been issued for portions of North Carolina as residents and visitors listen to evacuation orders issued for the outer Banks.

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Erin is a large hurricane and is expected to grow "substantially in size" as it moves over the western Atlantic this week, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

Erin weakened slightly overnight and Tuesday morning and is now a strong Category 2 strom with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Hurricane Erin projected path. See current location

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Location: 665 miles southwest of Bermuda; 720 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina; and 518 miles east of Stuart
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph
Movement: northwest at 7 mph
Pressure: 958 mb
Next advisory: 11 a.m. ET

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North Carolina braces for Hurricane Erin. Watches issued

Several watches associated with Erin have been issued for North Carolina:

Storm surge watch: Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
Tropical storm watch: Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

The storm’s rapid intensification prompted increased emergency measures in North Carolina. The Outer Banks — a popular summer vacation spot — are under a state of emergency. Officials mandated evacuations for Hatteras Island, ordering visitors to leave by 10 a.m. Monday, Aug. 18, and residents by 8 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, as forecasters warned of life-threatening rip currents, large swells, coastal flooding and road washouts.

The hurricane center warned storm surge could cause the water to rise 2 to 4 feet above dry ground along the Outer Banks as Erin moves north.

➤ NC declares state of emergency in Outer Banks. See Hurricane Erin tracker

Residents along the North Carolina coast were warned there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands of Erin around the middle of the week, as well as a threat for significant coastal flooding and beach erosion, according to the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Erin. See projected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?

No.

Erin is expected to remain off Florida's coast but it is forecast to bring life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents from Florida to Canada.

Remember, forecasts can change so it's always best to be prepared.

What impacts could Hurricane Erin have on Florida?

Ocean swells associated with Hurricane Erin are expected to bring large ocean swells and life-threatening rip currents to Florida's coast.

Surf heights could reach 7 to 10 feet Aug. 19-Aug. 21 along Northeast Florida beaches.

Along east central Florida beaches, waves to reach 9 to 11 feet, occasionally as high as 14 feet, at their peak on Aug. 20, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.

How strong is Hurricane Erin and where could it go?

At 8 a.m., the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 72.2 West.

Erin is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

Watches and warnings issued for Hurricane Erin

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeast Bahamas
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- Central Bahamas
- Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
- Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

Hazards affecting land from Hurricane Erin

Rainfall: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thurs

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Surf: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Storm surge: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina: 2 to 4 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Erin

Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.
Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas today.