Historic odds of Erin hitting North Carolina low, records show

Desmond Milligan · August 14

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The odds of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Erin hitting North Carolina next week are only 6%, according to historical records going back 175 years.

Since 1850, which is as far back as accurate hurricane records go, there have been 51 storms that were within 50 miles of the current position of Tropical Storm Erin as of Wednesday evening. Of those 51 storms, only three made landfall in North Carolina, which is just shy of 6%. Most of the named storms over that time period stayed out to sea and did not make landfall at all in North Carolina.

LATEST FORECAST: Tropical Storm Erin strengthens, could be hurricane by Friday: NHC

Two of the storms stayed far enough south to make it into the Gulf.

Two of the storms happened in the same month back in 1955 — Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane. Hurricane Six made landfall back in 1933, before storms were given names.

CBS 17 Chief Meteorologist Wes Hohenstein calculated this information using an extensive database.

“While this historical information has no bearing on the forecast for this year’s Tropical Storm Erin, it is interesting to note how hard it is for a tropical system to make it to North Carolina,” Hohenstein points out. “Most storms in Erin’s current position curve out to see and never make landfall in the United States.”

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center eventually strengthens Erin to a major, Category 3 hurricane later this weekend just north of the Caribbean.

Many of the computer models turn the storm north early next week and bring it between Bermuda and the east coast of U.S., coming closest to North Carolina by next Wednesday.

The historical records have no impact on this year’s forecast. The current forecast will also have to be watched for changes. While it is looking more likely the east coast will avoid a direct hit, the forecast will evolve in the coming days. Please check back for updates.

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